Argentina country risk — EMBI+ today
Argentine country risk (J.P. Morgan EMBI+) in basis points. Latest level, 30-day change, range average and historical series.
What is country risk and how to read it
Country risk is the spread Argentine sovereign USD bonds trade at over comparable-maturity US Treasuries. It is expressed in basis points (bps): 1,000 bps = 10% extra annual yield.
The most-used index for Argentina is J.P. Morgan's EMBI+ Argentina. It reflects the market-implied probability of default: below 500 bps signals high confidence, 500-1,000 bps normal stress, 1,000-2,000 bps nervous market, and over 2,000 bps expectations of restructuring or default.
For investors, country risk determines the cost at which Argentina can refinance debt: at 1,500 bps, a new USD issuance would pay ~17-18%, effectively closing markets. Dropping below 700 bps is the informal threshold for returning to international bond markets. That is why every 100-bps move is front-page financial news.
Common questions
What is Argentina's country risk today?
We show the latest published value above, with its 30-day change, the visible-range average and a historical chart.
What is the EMBI+?
Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus, from J.P. Morgan. It is the amount-weighted average spread of a country's USD sovereign bonds over the equivalent Treasury. Variants include Global and Diversified; Argentina traditionally tracks the strict EMBI+.
How does country risk relate to the FX rate?
Two sides of the same macro fear. When country risk rises, the market prices in trouble paying USD debt — usually reserves or fiscal deficit — which pressures the MEP/CCL. Correlation is imperfect but strong.
How is country risk computed?
For each sovereign USD bond, subtract the equivalent Treasury yield to get a spread. Weight each spread by outstanding amount. Duration-adjust. The result approximates the average premium the market demands.
What country-risk level does Argentina need to issue debt again?
Historically, under 700 bps is the informal threshold that enables USD issuance at viable rates (8-9%). Over 1,500 bps typically means markets are closed; refinancing depends on multilateral lenders or debt swaps.
Analyze the country risk with AI
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